Awaiting Response: Iran, Lebanon, and Yemen
As the clock ticks, the world wonders what the response from the Islamic Republic of Iran, Hezbollah, and Yemen will be to the terrorist attacks by the Zionist regime, which have assassinated top Hamas diplomat Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, a top Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr In Beirut, and executed a terror attack in Al Hudaydah. Israeli politicians and their military settlers have had no sleep as they await the consequences of their actions. Despite Israel and the U.S. losing their deterrence against Iran in April 2024 and January 2020, respectively, one wonders why Israel commits another terror attack on Iranian soil, which further destabilizes the regime in Tel Aviv.
Desperation and Decline: The Israeli Regime’s Extreme Measures
One perspective is that when a regime is dying politically, economically, and militarily, it may resort to extreme terrorist measures, as seen increasingly thus far. The regime has not managed to achieve any military or political objectives since Operation Al-Aqsa Flood on October 7, 2023. Some may say that Netanyahu is doing this to avoid jail time. Yes, this is true, but it is only the tip of the iceberg. The real issue is that the permanent military base of the U.S. and the Israeli colonial project is dying. The U.S. is dictating the terms for Israel, not the other way around as many claim.
U.S. Influence and Strategic Challenges
When the regime collapses, and all remaining settlers flee from occupied Palestine, U.S. troops will be forced to shut down their military bases in West Asia. Many of these bases in Iraq and Syria are being attacked by Iraqi and Syrian branches of the axis of resistance, and once the Zionist regime is gone the focus and strength against the illegal occupational U.S. bases will become stronger and more effective. Since the U.S. lost its deterrence against Iran, it is using Israel to attack Iran to frighten the remaining entities of the axis of resistance from retaliating several folds stronger every time Israel commits terror attacks against them. The U.S. is acting as if it has no control over its loose wild dog – the Israeli regime – and that Israel is acting independently. Moreover, the U.S. economy cannot handle boots on the ground in the region against a broad asymmetrical warfare carried out by many factions of the axis of resistance. The tactic of the axis of resistance is so effective that even U.S. and Israeli supremacy in technology is futile in helping them attain any military objectives. Another reason the U.S. will not put boots on the ground for Israel is that its war against Russia via Ukraine has failed and is costing billions. The best the U.S. and its allies can do is send weapons for Israel to use against civilians and military targets and hope for some kind of military victory.
Israeli Terror Operations: Expansion and Motivations
There are several other reasons behind the expansion of Israeli terror operations abroad. One is to destabilize Syria again, as it did with their ISIS project, as part of the Yinon Oded Plan of the Greater Israel project. However, Iran’s IRGC and Russia put an end to it. By attacking Syrian targets, they seek to revive these Takfiri (Wahhabi/Salafi) activities in Syria with their proxy state regimes, such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE, or the Kurdish groups they have control over to destabilize the link between Lebanon, Iraq, and Iran. This is also why the Syrian government has not taken any significant anti-Israeli steps. Syria is aware that the regime in Tel Aviv and the U.S. will attempt to revive terrorist activities of Al Qaeda from Idlib and ISIS from the south of Syria, where U.S. troops are occupying the oil fields around Al-Tanf. Recently, there have been increasing ceasefire violations by terrorists in Idlib, which have been bombed several times by Russian forces. It is for these reasons, Syria has installed many radar and anti-missile systems in Syria, such as the Iranian Bavar-373, to protect Syria from Israeli aggression.
The Axis of Resistance: Strength and Strategy
Any expansion of war that Israel seeks is meant, in Israeli calculations, to weaken the strength that the axis of resistance has established in West Asia. Judging by the increasing expenditure on the steel industry and defense sector by many world powers, and tensions occurring in many parts of the world via U.S. or Israeli involvement, such as between China and Taiwan, South and North Korea, Greece and Turkey, and Azerbaijan and Iran, it is no secret that a third world war is inevitable. We live in a multipolar era where the eastern socialist-communist bloc and the Islamic ideology, led by Iran, have taken the lead via the axis of resistance. This third ideological pole is what the U.S. seeks to weaken before a world war by forcing its allies in NATO to send troops instead of the U.S. itself. It is for this reason that Putin appointed the Soviet-educated economist Andrei Belousov as the defense minister and not a military specialist. World wars need proper defense budget management in order to keep victories on the battlefield in check. The eastern block and 3rd pole have a common interest against the U.S. led pole. This is also why Russia bought Iranian drones before the war in Ukraine and even later acquired Iranian missiles. After the assassination of Haniyeh, General Michael Erik Kurilla, head of the United States Central Command (CENTCOM), arrived in Israel to complete preparations to defend Israel from an anticipated Iranian attack. A day after of early August, Russia sent General Sergei Shoigu, the Secretary of the Security Council of the Russian Federation, to Iran’s Major General Major General Mohammad Bagheri, the Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with several interesting military hardware transported through cargo carriers using Gelix airlines. These were reportedly the Murmansk-BN electronic warfare system and the Iskander tactical missile system, which have been shown to be extremely effective on Ukrainian military targets and systems. The Murmansk-BN system, is the most advanced electronic warfare system in the world and has a range of 5,000-8,000 km, well beyond the distance between Iran and Israel. It can perform a wide range of capabilities, such as jamming high-frequency electronic signals used by U.S., Israeli, and NATO communication systems, tracing incoming missiles, and detecting and targeting stealth fighters and aircraft. This shows that both Russia and Iran are ready for any eventual regional war involving Israel striking back at Iran, or even if NATO countries intervene. It is for these very reasons why last year Russia sold several Su-35 fighter jets to Iran, meant to extend Iran’s air defense industry in the industry of jet fighters as well.
Strategic Retaliation: The Importance of a Strong Response
If Iran does not strike many times harder than it did in April 2024, it will consequently send a signal to Israel to assassinate other political figures of the axis of resistance, like those in Lebanon and Syria. Israel may then enter Lebanon, believing the consequences to be minimal in their calculations. In other words, in my analysis, the Iranian-Yemeni-Lebanese response needs to be strategic to hinder any expansion of the war into Syria and concentrate efforts against the regime in occupied Palestine to end the occupation of Palestine by the settlers and their regime.
Economic Disruption: Targeting Iran’s Growth and Influence
Another aspect of Israel’s lunatic terror attacks on Iran is intended to disrupt its expanding role in BRICS and its trade with China, Russia, and India. A regional war would certainly affect the growth of the Iranian economy in the international arena. This is why Israel’s second-largest military presence is in Azerbaijan. It is involved in blocking the trading route between Russia and Iran, creating sectarianism between Iranians and Turks inside Iran, continuing to suppress the Shia Muslim majority inside Azerbaijan, and using spy aircrafts and equipment to spy on Iran.
Future Directions: Escalation or Realization?
Will Israel accept its realities, retreat from the concentration camp in Gaza where millions of Palestinians are held hostage since 2009, and avoid attacking its neighbors, or will it continue to seek escalation that could lead to losing occupied territories in the north, force the shutdown of American troops and their bases, and hasten the collapse of the Zionist regime?
